Tongwei (600438) incident comment: continuous expansion of production capacity is expected to usher in rapid growth
Event: Tongwei shares released 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report.In 2018, Tongwei’s operating income and net profit attributable to mothers were 275 respectively.3.5 billion, 20.19 ppm, with annual growth rates of 5.53%, 0.51%; In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s operating income and net profit attributable to mothers were 61.6.9 billion, 4.91 trillion, the annual growth rate was 18.14%, 53.36%. Opinion: The production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon enters the top three in the world, and the cost reduction work continues to advance to the end of 2018. The company is located in Leshan. The first phase of the two “5-inch high-purity crystalline silicon and supporting new energy projects” has been completed and put into production as planned.The production capacity will reach 8 inches, and the company’s high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity has entered the top three ranks in the world.In 2018, the company achieved high-purity crystalline silicon sales1.92 for the first time, with an annual increase of 19.74%, the average production cost is about 5.530,000 yuan / ton, the previous gross profit margin reached 33.88%. The solar cell production capacity is the world’s first. It is expected that the battery production capacity will continue to expand in 2019. The company’s solar cells have formed a 12GW capacity scale and are respectively located in Chengdu and Hefei.first. The company’s solar cell scale is expected to reach 20 GW at the end of 2019, further consolidating the company’s scale advantage in solar cell series. The installed capacity of 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 photovoltaic power generation reached 1151MW, and the investment cost of the power station continued to decline until the end of 2018. The company has completed 52 power generation projects based on “fishing and light integration”, with an installed capacity of 1,151MW.At present, the comprehensive investment cost of power plants has dropped to less than 5 yuan / W. In 2019, the cost will be reduced to less than 4 yuan / W, and the pace of achieving parity on-line access will be fully accelerated. Earnings forecast and investment advice: Given an “overweight” rating, we expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 355 respectively.45/436.16/506.8.7 billion, the previous growth rate was 29.09% / 22.70% / 16.21%; net profit attributable to mothers is 33.04/41.23/48.2.2 billion, with an annual growth rate of 63.65% / 24.79% / 16.97%.The corresponding EPS are 0.85/1.06/1.24 yuan, give “overweight” rating. Risk warning: The release of production capacity is less than expected, and the domestic photovoltaic policy is less than expected.