Ping An of China (601318): New orders, renewal premiums show negative growth, demonstrating the gradual and necessary reform
New life insurance orders have negative growth due to the adjustment of business rhythm. Life insurance renewal premiums have the first negative growth due to the influence of the payment term structure of the existing business.
(1) Life and health insurance: The original premiums for life and health insurance in January were 107.9 billion yuan, a longer period of time13.
0%; of which, personal business 1 has a monthly new single premium of 26.5 billion, exceeding the figure by 14.
9%; personal business renewal premiums in January were 79.5 billion, 12 in adjacent periods.
8% is expected to be the first time in the company’s history that a single month of renewal of negative premium growth.
The reason for the negative growth of the new orders in January was mainly due to the company’s achievements in December 2019 and its 19-year business closure, achieving the 2019 NBV growth rate of 5.
1%, during the 2020 start-up phase, some new policy premiums will be designated to take effect in December 1919, bringing an explosive increase in new policy premiums in December 2019 (+47.
7%), resulting in a gap in new orders in January 2020; the negative growth in renewal premiums is expected to be due to the reduction of 3 / 5-year payment period policies in 2015-2017 due to the 杭州夜网 company’s start-up boom and the high growth rate.The period has ended, causing a gap in renewal premiums in 2020. Looking back, as the company continues to adhere to the product strategy of focusing on long-term delivery, it is expected that the subsequent months of 20 years will resume positive growth.
(2) Property and Casualty Insurance: In January, the company’s property and casualty insurance business had an original premium of 34.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.
2%, a year-on-year growth rate (+18.
(7%). The growth rate is obvious. From the perspective of sub-insurance income, the premium growth rate of auto insurance business in January was only 1.
3% (+10 in the same period last year).
6%), the growth rate of non-auto insurance is 16.
8% (+35 in the same period last year).
1%), accident and health 武汉夜网论坛 insurance maintained a growth rate of 27.
0% (+53 in the same period last year).
Basically in line with our previous judgment, the growth rate of auto insurance premiums is much lower than non-car insurance (meaning health insurance).
It is expected that the promotion of the three fee reforms in 2020 will be accompanied by a further decline in the average insurance premium. Gradually, the growth rate of auto insurance premiums is expected to continue to be under pressure, and non-auto insurance will maintain a high growth rate.
Investment suggestion: The company will strengthen its life insurance reform in 2020 and is expected to start a new growth cycle in 2021.
In 2019, the company still achieved 5 under the background of negative human pressure growth.
The 1% NBV is growing, demonstrating the scale of the company’s business development. By 2020, it is a key year for life insurance reform. It is expected that the company will carry out in-depth reforms and adjustments in the areas of “channel development” and “product upgrades” with a view toThe long-term restorative growth of NBV will be realized in the following years. The new coronary pneumonia epidemic beginning at the beginning of the year will affect the company’s short-term new order sales in Q1, but it is expected to resume growth after the epidemic is over. At the same time, it is expected that the regulatory policy will also benefit the companyFor business development, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the expected growth of NBV.
We expect EV growth to be 18 in 2020.
5%, will still achieve the expected growth in the industry, and currently corresponds to the company’s 2020 P / EV estimate of 1.
04X, target assessment 1.
4X, corresponding to the target price of 112 yuan, 39% space.
Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic exceeds expectations; new orders recover less than expected; interest rates trend downward.