Night network, network nightlife Wall Street FRANCISCO July 27 news, July 24 the State Council recommendations, the market will improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expand the floating range of the RMB exchange rate two-way。Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) interpret this as the government may allow a moderate depreciation of the yuan against the dollar。  Deutsche Bank predicted value of the yuan against the US dollar by the end of this year and the end of 2016 were down to 6.3 and 6.5, which previously predicted values are 6.2。  Why is Deutsche Bank's statement means that the government will allow the yuan to depreciate it mild?There are three main reasons。  First, Deutsche Bank is expected to the lowest level in the second quarter of China's real export growth may have dropped since the financial crisis。Although the General Administration of Customs reported export growth in the first half of every month is positive, but the export value from the industry were surveyed in the second quarter year on year negative growth throughout the quarter fell about 3% per month year on year, indicators for 2009 in the first negative growth since October。Deutsche Bank pointed out that this may be the reason the government introduced measures to boost exports。  Secondly, the wording previously expressed some differences。China's central bank [microblogging] in exchange rate policy statement in the first quarter was that "enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate two-way volatility," while the State Department expressed clearly stronger and more clear。  Third, the State Council guidelines explicitly promoting trade exchange-rate policy as part of a portfolio。The bank said, unless accompanied by currency depreciation, rising exchange rate volatility on trade is unfavorable。  But Deutsche Bank believes that the Chinese government will not allow the yuan to reach double-digit annual depreciation。  Deutsche Bank economist, wrote in the report: "This will increase the risk of capital outflows, and endanger economic growth。"Deutsche Bank expects 2015 capital account liberalization and progress in mid-2016, China will continue to exceed expectations, the pace by allowing more capital inflows, in particular through the bond market, the devaluation will help control。(Shofu compilation)