Text / Sina Finance opinion leaders (micro-channel public number kopleader) columnist Chen Jianguang into a new era, Chinese economy has shown two sides feature。 On the one hand, China's economic stabilization and recovery, just-released 2017 report card than expected, GDP growth ended seven years of decline, growth rebounded to% Troika same time force, the new economic prosperity; on the other hand, local debt risks are increasing, and more frequently exposes GDP data and financial fraud squeeze water; frequent incidents of financial risks, Chengdu branch was traced to over seventy billion of corporate credit empty shell, and an astonishment。
The real estate market bubble accumulation, currently still need the aid of the purchase, credit limit, limit the sale of other ways to curb investment。 How to understand the two sides of a new era of Chinese economy, China's economic prospects will face what challenges?  What about the push by the rebound in the current round of China's economy stabilized what factors contention last year there had been warm and the old model of the new cycle。 In my opinion, a combination of both。 On the one hand, as the representative of the traditional real estate to infrastructure investment-led economic stabilization contributed, especially in the real estate market in a number of policies to the inventory of both the background, just one year to reverse the situation, the real estate market from the cold into hot, and even spawned a real estate bubble。 At the same time new high, benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and foreign trade environment and better last year, net exports to the GDP% change a negative contribution over the past two years, and the highest in a decade。
  On the other hand, Internet-based +, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, new rapid economic rise than expected。 China's leading global mobile payment applications, third-party mobile payment penetration current China has been as high as ninety percent, greatly reducing transaction costs and improving economic efficiency。 The rapid development of artificial intelligence, Chinese industrial scale for 20% growth, China's industrial robot production accounts for one third of global production。 At the same time, rapid growth in Internet consumption, last year's national online retail sales grew%, far higher than the 10% growth in the same period of social retail。
We can say that the new economy is changing the traditional business model and the format has become an important driving force of China's economy in the new period。
  Based on this, there are optimistic view that the Chinese economy has entered a new cycle, in 2018 China's economy will continue to rebound, GDP is expected to rise to 7% or even higher。
But in my opinion, the new kinetic energy with the old model of parallel support China's economic situation or difficult to sustain in 2018。
  Traditional debt to stimulate the expansion of the old model of high-speed investment, although growth in the short term to stabilize the economy, but now it seems more and more financial risk, unsustainable local government debt worries, the financial and the real economy as well as highly leveraged real estate bubble Chinese economic influence is enormous gray rhinoceros, in the context of deleveraging, in 2018 China's economy may still be a year full of uncertainty。   First, the local government debt risk can not be overlooked。 Recently, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia and other places exposed data squeeze the water, giant makes data changes before and after the amendment surprise。
Such as Inner Mongolia lowered 2016 revenue quarter, above-scale industrial added value Tiaojian four percent, Baotou City, the general public budget revenues dropped by nearly half, Tianjin Binhai New Area to recognize the existence of artificially high level of one-third of GDP data。
  In the inflated revenue at the same time, local government debt has increased in disguise, far exceeded the capacity of local reimbursable。 Especially in recent years against the backdrop of tight constraints of local debt, government guidance of investment funds, special construction fund, PPP, government purchase of services grew by leaps and bounds, most of which contain stealth guarantee of local government, in fact, Ming equity debt。
The end of July last year, the domestic government guidance target size of the fund would have been more than 8 trillion, more than doubled over 2016, Huge Risk。
  Most Furthermore, local government debt and long-term investment in urban construction projects, long cycle, short-term benefits worrying, at maturity mismatch, increased financial risk。
For example, the recent Baotou, Hohhot subway project was stopped also shows the associated risks, according to the information, Baotou investment amount over 30 billion project, which raise capital from the Baotou City Department of Finance 40%, supporting the bank credit funds。 But Baotou local financial squeeze water after removing half, the real income of only billion in government funding only metro project will be close to the local financial year。   Secondly, under the background of financial deleveraging, risk events are on the rise。 Since the nineteenth big, strong regulation and decision-making situation layer deleveraging is already clear。
I went to both leverage and financial deleveraging in the "capo Zhou Xiaochuan financial leverage behind" around the real economy, state-owned enterprises to leverage and corporate zombie process, deepen banking regulation, tighten the real estate financing, Internet banking transmissive regulation, strengthen the accountability of local debt territorial eight aspects are given strict supervision of the future might。
Nearly two months since the new regulations came out tough and information management, financial supervision and deepening the Internet, consumer loans into the real estate field and to intensify rectification of channel business, strong regulatory and other outsourcing services confirmed that the author expected, indicating strong regulatory storm s arrival。   In my opinion, the deleveraging of action is likely to increase the frequency of the outbreak of the financial risk。 Beginning of this year, Yunnan provincial investment platform will appear on the debt servicing, trust moratorium issue, once again breaking the rigid payment is to strengthen the backdrop of the financial deleveraging is expected above all in the event of local government debt constraints in not isolated cases。 In addition, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Chengdu Branch also recently been discovered to cover up bad loans, business credit shell to 1493 77.5 billion yuan。 Fragility of financial institutions giving warning, perhaps under the Minga said lever boosted prosperity, the financial markets seem calm, but once faced with strong regulatory policy shift, it is difficult to cover up the problem, the real financial institution soundness and risk-resisting what is the capacity, there is no clear answer。
  Again, the real estate bubble to resolve how smooth is a major difficulty。 Over the past ten years, housing prices in China rose repeatedly control repeatedly, but often by prices – price spiral defuse income model, that housing prices first period, then government regulation of prices under control, digest it before the real estate bubble by raising income。 But faced with the real estate bubble, the above model has been difficult to replicate the previous mode。 On the one hand, we have experienced over the past two years, double the growth in house prices, a second-tier cities the price earnings ratio index is close to the highest international standards; on the other hand, in recent years, with the growth rate of income growth and decline all the way down, and in the short term hard to catch up with the early rise in house prices。   Today, the implementation of the decision-making does not live in a house just fried the already firm resolve, which makes First, from an economic point of view growth, accompanied by a decline in sales and new construction, real estate investment will gradually slow down, and the impact of consumer real estate-related finance and land have a negative impact on growth。 From a policy perspective, the real estate long-term mechanism is the most critical part, how property taxes fall still face uncertainty。 How many other key issues surrounding the scope of the levy, the value of the standard tax rate and no clear answers, avoiding the need to repeatedly measure rate fluctuations, to avoid aggravating the unfair income distribution and supplementary sources of income, such as multiple targets in place after making a choice。
  In short, although the Chinese economy in mid-2017, driven by the kinetic energy of the new with the old model, the growth rate turned up, but according to my observation, this rebound is not stable。
Local government debt risk, real estate risk and vulnerability of financial institutions largely concealed in the policy loose, and now policy shift, high debt-driven investment in transmission mode can not be sustained in the short term。
Under the new momentum of support alone, I expect, by 2018 China's economy will emerge the overall downward trend, or from mid of 2017% to 2018% down。
At the expense of short-term portion of the growth rate, but also to prevent gray rhinoceros risk in exchange for higher quality growth the only way。