Source: Author worldview: Department of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute researcher Mei Xinyu with newspaper has finally come to the。 In the US government is likely to experience in the next day to close at 2018, the third stop of the shadows, in the troubled three cases of extra-marital affairs and sexual harassment lawsuit, the US Eastern time on March 22 at noon, 23 am Beijing time, US President Bertrand S & P signed a presidential memorandum economic aggression against China (Chinaseconomicaggression) in accordance with the pre-announced schedule, announced the forthcoming Chinese behavior in the steel, aluminum trade and intellectual property levy punitive tariffs on $ 50 billion of Chinese exports to the United States while limiting Chinese direct investment in the United States, so the focus of public opinion at home and abroad successfully transferred to the trade and economic disputes, financial market worth earthquake。 As a Chinese person, this news gave me the first feeling is excited: My parents survived childhood have experienced more than once under the iron heel of the Japanese invaders sweep terror, his father finally witnessed in previous years, the Japanese right imperialist protests in the scene; today, dignified uS president also accused us of their economic aggression, what better than this indicates that China's comprehensive national strength has increased substantially and indeed?The second is the desire to feel before battle。 Open play punch, lest one hundred fist to; the rise of great powers, if economic warfare inevitably, will fight with Trump to fight a trade war epic, in the long run is probably a good thing rather than a bad thing。 Moreover, China has continuously ranked the world's three decades of anti-dumping, the largest target country countervailing and other trade protection measures, China is the world's first grow into a big manufacturing country in successive trade friction, the biggest exporter。 Today, in the face of a new trade war is imposed, the Sino-US comparative economic strength unprecedented in favor of China: according to IMF data, China's first test in the United States Special 301 sticks of 1989, Chinese GDP at current prices for the US $ 461.1 billion, the United States was $ 5.2526 trillion, the United States is China's times; real GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) of China was $ 1.0394 trillion, the United States was $ 5.2526 trillion, is China's times。 In 1991 the United States launched the first raid on the Chinese action based on Special 301, Chinese GDP was $ 415.6 billion at current prices, the United States was $ 6.1741 trillion, the United States is China's times; real gross domestic product at purchasing power parity terms China is 1.2636 trillion dollar, 6.1741 trillion US dollars, is China's times。
2016, Chinese price GDP was $ 11.3916 trillion, the United States was $ 18.5619 trillion, the United States is China's times; real GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) of China was $ 21.269 trillion, the United States was $ 18.5619 trillion, equivalent to only 87% of China's。
Moreover, in recent years, Chinese economic growth in domestic demand, especially consumption contribution rate has increased significantly, in 2017 full-year GDP growth in consumer spending as% contribution rate, capital formation%, net exports of goods and services as% , which further enhances confidence when coping trade war is imposed on us。 March 23, the Ministry of Commerce released a list of products to suspend concessions imported steel and aluminum products for the US and 232 measures for public comment, to be on some products imported from the United States imposed tariffs to balance due to the United States on imports of steel and aluminum products loss of tariffs caused to the interests of China。 The face of this epic trade war, we have to rise to the challenge can also start from what?First, we should pursue trade retaliation against the principle of precision。
This trade war is not our war with the American people, but our team with Trump and the protectionist war; since as Trump politicians most important votes, then we should give priority to the fight against the 2016 election Trump winning the state's key industries, priority in the fight against this year's mid-term election constituency where Mr Trump support of leading industry。 At the same time, some of our new industries would also need to be protected for some time in order to more effectively deal with competition from the United States, only because negotiations with the United States to compromise and open the market; in a trade war, we can pause to re-open to US companies in the industry market, until we reach an agreement with the uS government so far。
Secondly, China's economy should not be self-limited to the field of counter-trade in goods, but should also cover financial sector。 We can choose the areas of weapons, including not only financial people talk about for years to sell US debt, including the US stock market hit。
Since the US stock market hit record highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed last year to refresh the record 60 times, at most, Trump is also a favorite boast of achievements to the voters, then, hands in this area since mid-1995, capable of Trump to play hurt。 Originally, the spate of trade disputes, the US stock market this year has put into the woods: Since the end of 2016, the US consumer price index has maintained a more than 2%, and increasing inflationary pressures are important reasons for the Fed to tighten monetary policy to accelerate。 But the Fed to tighten monetary policy to accelerate there may pierce the US stock market bubble, then repeat the mistakes of Japan's bubble economy burst。
Now, if Trump large-scale introduction of punitive import tariffs, the United States is bound to further increase inflationary pressures, thereby increasing the Fed to raise interest rates accelerated, resulting in the probability of a hard landing for the US stock market。 On this basis, the government fund investors Ye Hao, Ye Hao private fund investors, can point to carry out further blow for the target company stock in line with the above principles of precision strike, using legal means short, triggering market herd behavior, which led to its share price plunge。 Third, the Chinese counterattack in the WTO should not be confined to the protracted dispute settlement mechanism should also be bold to imagine that the United States will seek expulsion from the World Trade Organization。 Why did the US dare ignore WTO rules stir up one after another, their own way of implementation of the Blue Water Strategy?The key reason is counting on the WTO and other international economic organizations and ultimately his boss that he can safely reap the benefits of the multilateral trading system Members。
If you see a bloody fool to let Uncle Sam is likely to be expelled from the WTO, its behavior will inevitably converge many。
Yes, the existing WTO regulations there is no direct provision of the Terms expelled members of the party qualifications; however, let our legal experts carefully study WTO document may come out of the meaning of expelled members to qualify from the existing provisions。
Fourth, China should not be self-limited counter the economic sphere, but should cover the political sphere。 In international politics, the United States needs China's support, with the place more than men, it is not difficult to pick out a few Trump fired back。 Considering Trump's purpose is likely to be blackmail, to obtain better economic, political asking price (including the Korean Peninsula issue), rather than overturned the table and asked to sever economic and trade relations to China through intimidation, as he suffered America's own domestic economy impact will also be manufactured in chaos, we need to focus on in particular in the field of counter-attack。 Trade war is not a good thing, but everything has two sides, a trade war is no exception, we should make full use of a trade war two sides to achieve our aim。 They limit Chinese investment in the US, reducing the Chinese visa, there is help us as deterrents to curb capital flight and brain drain to ease the pressure on the objective, we might as well make good use of these effects。
Finally, although Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding, but his real purpose of art is still likely to be playing with their own set of transaction to blackmail us, an attempt to engage the cliff edge tactics to intimidate us, in order to strive for the best conditions for their , and these conditions are not confined mostly involved in economic and trade fields, but also at the same time covering the political arena, such as the Korean Peninsula and other issues。 In the early period of doing business, it has always been like this person who bid farewell to a lawsuit, but the court the previous day to court the next day and still with arms around each other; on North Korea, on the performance of his personality that was very full。 In the trade dispute with China, he is likely to do to send this repeat, we should be fully aware of this and prepare。