Yang Delong: The economic side has just recovered and the policy side will not turn
China’s economy continues to pick up.
The PMI for April was 50.
1%, although the ratio fell to 0 in March.
Four averages, but still in the expansion range, above the 50% watershed.
This shows that the economic growth rate will still maintain a certain growth each month in the future.
Judging from the recently released first-quarter data, the economic recovery in the first quarter was obvious.
PMI’s industrial added value, power generation and other data show that there are cracks in the economic recovery.
This is mainly due to the loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy implemented at the beginning of this year, especially the tax and fee reduction policy of up to 2 trillion yuan, which played a key role in stabilizing the economy.
The increase in credit support for private enterprises and the opening up of “the last mile of loans to enterprises” and other measures have effectively boosted the market’s confidence and the economic situation has picked up.
Of course, although the economy is now recovering, the growth momentum is still relatively fragile, so each should still take care of the rare recovery.
After this period of economic recovery, many people worry that policy will change?
In particular, will monetary policy be tightened?
I don’t think this kind of worry is necessary at all, because now the economy is just picking up, and it has not completely re-growth.
And the global economic growth rate also has a certain impact on China’s exports, so I think that in terms of policies, it will still actively support economic development without turning too fast.
The transaction volume of the property market in 2019 continues to shrink, the number of shed reforms has slowed, and the transaction volume has been sluggish. These are the results of three consecutive years of purchase and loan restrictions.
The central government has arranged the house many times to live, not to speculate, which means that the replacement of real estate will still not relax.
Although some cities have relaxed their policies due to city-by-city policies and city-by-city policies, most cities still maintain a relatively tight transition.
Real estate has led to a significant contraction in the volume of second-hand housing transactions, which has reduced the investment enthusiasm of real estate investors.
Now that the price of the property market in most cities in China is at a high level, the expected rate of return on investment in the property market is bound to decline.
Compared with the annualized rate of return of more than 20% in the past ten years, the future rate of return may reach 2 to 3%.
This rate of return is not enough to attract more funds to the property market, so I propose that the golden decade of the domestic property market has ended. In the future, the house will be mainly a residential function, and its investment properties will decline, which will cause a large number of residents’ wealth to 杭州桑拿网 shift.From the property market to the stock market, the A-share market will usher in a golden decade.
In the past two weeks, there has been some adjustment in the A-share market. After the broad market stood at 3200 points, the divergence between long and short positions increased, and some funds began to take profit, which led to a certain decline in the market.
Now the market has returned to more than 3,000 points, and the market’s bull market pattern has been reorganized.
Especially when the current economic situation has just improved and policy expectations have not been unified, market changes are bound to exist, but these have not changed the upward trend of the A-share market.
In the past seven trading days, six foreign exchange days have been net alternating, and net inflows have resumed this week.
This shows that the foreign net allowance is a short-term behavior, in which a part of the funds flow out for profit settlement, and the future trend is still a lot of inflows.
Because the overall advantage of the A-share market is still low globally, and the A-share history ranks, the current estimate is still at a relatively low level.
Except for some stocks with high estimates, some of the white dragon horse stocks that I recommend to you have performed well in the past three years. The prices of Moutai and Wuliangye have reached record highs.
But the value of the stocks of these companies, I think, will become higher and higher in the future.
There are also more and more funds flowing into these white dragon horse stocks, so their inevitable highs are also reasonable. In the future, there will be more and more white dragon horse stocks to reach record highs.
Therefore, investors are advised to stick to the value investment and seize the opportunity of Bailong Malaysian shares so that they can truly embrace the golden decade of A shares.
Now the polarization of A-shares is becoming more and more obvious, and it has become a ceaseless tide. In addition, the white dragon horse stocks like you just mentioned are competing highs. I think the emergence of polarization is inevitable.
As the A-share market becomes more and more mature, investors’ investment concepts will slowly shift to value investment.
In the past three years, I have traveled to the United States three times to attend the Buffett shareholders meeting. This year, I am again to attend the Buffett shareholders meeting in Omaha.
Fortunately, Buffett’s value investment philosophy has now gradually gained popularity in the A-share market. I have always insisted on recommending value investments and recommending Bailong Ma shares.
The value of this type of stock will be recognized by more and more institutions in the future, which will inevitably give these companies opportunities to bring continuous performance.
And poor performance stocks and distortion stocks are becoming more and more unpopular, and over time, some stocks will gradually be marginalized.
Recently, the performance of some companies has experienced huge losses, and most of these companies are some small and medium-sized enterprises. The true white dragon and horse stocks have rarely exploded.From a risk perspective, investors are advised to seize the opportunities of the good Bailong Malaysia stocks and stay away from poor performers and alternative stocks.